WORKING PAPERS


Tutz, G. & Mauerer, I. Heterogeneity in General Multinomial Choice Models.

arXiv preprint. arXiv:2011.02688

 

Different voters behave differently, different governments make different decisions, or different organizations are ruled differently. Many research questions important to political scientists concern choice behavior, which involves dealing with nominal-scale dependent variables. Drawing on the principle of maximum random utility, we propose a flexible and general heterogeneous multinomial logit model for studying differences in choice behavior. The model systematically accounts for heterogeneity that is not captured by classical models, indicates the strength of heterogeneity, and permits examining which explanatory variables cause heterogeneity. As the proposed approach allows incorporating theoretical expectations about heterogeneity into the analysis of nominal dependent variables, it can be applied to a wide range of research problems. Our empirical example uses data on multiparty elections to demonstrate the benefits of the model in the study of heterogeneity in spatial voting.


Mauerer, I. & Schneider, M. Uncertainty in Issue Placements and Spatial Voting.

LMU Munich, Department of Statistics: Technical Reports, Nr. 226.  

doi:10.5282/ubm/epub.68451

  

Empirical applications of spatial voting approaches frequently rely on ordinal policy scales to measure the policy preferences of voters and their perceptions about party or candidate platforms. Even though it is well known that these placements are affected by uncertainty, only a few empirical voter choice models incorporate uncertainty into the choice rule. In this manuscript, we develop a two-stage approach to further the understanding of how uncertainty impacts on spatial issue voting. First, we model survey responses to ordinal policy scales where specific response styles capture the uncertainty structure in issue placements. At the second stage, we model voter choice and use the placements adjusted for the detected uncertainty as predictors in calculating spatial proximity. We apply the approach to the 2016 US presidential election and study voter preferences and perceptions of the two major candidate platforms on the traditional liberal-conservative scale and three specific issues. Our approach gives insights into how voters attribute issue positions and spatial voting behavior, and performs better than a voter choice model without accounting for uncertainty measured by AIC.


Mauerer, I. & Walter, A. S. Taking Ballots Seriously: Heterogeneous Ballot Compositions and Vote Choice. POLMETH Paper Archive

 

In partially-contested multiparty elections, voters are confronted with different party choices, depending on their constituency. We present a computationally straightforward modeling approach that systematically integrates heterogeneous ballot compositions, which classical models neglect, into the voter utility functions. We illustrate the benefits of the approach in studying British spatial voting behavior, where previous studies tend to simplify the actual choice situation by modeling a single ballot composition, thereby ignoring a substantial part of the electorate. Using 2015 British Election Study data, we simultaneously consider up to seven parties, spread across eight unique ballots, and provide a fully-specified vote model. The results show that both spatial and tactical considerations depend on which party voters evaluate. Whereas spatial proximity substantially impacts voting for the large parties, we uncover the reversed pattern for tactical  considerations. These party-specific effects are not found when neglecting ballot composition heterogeneity.

TALKS AND CONFERENCE PAPERS


  • Mauerer, I. & Schneider, M. (2019, July). Uncertainty in Issue Placements and Spatial Voting. Workshop on Recent Developments of Spatial Models of Party Competition; organized by Anna-Sophie Kurella, Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES). Technical Reports, Nr. 226, LMU Munich, Department of Statistics.
  • Mauerer, I. (2018, September). The Neglected Role and Variability of Party Intercepts in the Spatial Valence Approach: An Assessment. Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES).
  • Mauerer, I. (2018, August). Measuring Voters' Party-Issue Linkages in Parliamentary Elections. Paper presented at the EPCR General Conference, Hamburg.
  • Thurner, P.W., Bort, M., Mauerer, I., Klima, A. & Küchenhoff, H. (2018, August). Voter Transitions in the 2015 British General Election: Combining Online Panels and Aggregate Data at the Constituency LevelEPCR General Conference, Hamburg.
  • Mauerer, I. (2018, June). Measuring Voters' Party-Issue Linkages in Parliamentary Elections. Paper presented at the European Political Science Association (EPSA), Vienna, Austria.
  • Mauerer, I., Thurner, P. W. & Walter, A. S. (2017, September). Taking Ballots Seriously: Modeling Heterogeneous Choice Sets in the 2015 British Elections. Paper presented at the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) specialist group, Nottingham, UK.
  • Mauerer, I. (2017, July).  A Party-Varying Model of Issue Voting: A Cross-National Study. Workshop on New Developments in Spatial Models of Party Competition; organized by Bernard Grofman, Susumu Shikano, Konstantin Käppner, University of Konstanz.
  • Mauerer, I., Thurner, P. W. & Walter, A. S. (2017, April). Taking Real Ballots Seriously: Modeling Heterogeneous Choice Sets in the 2015 UK Elections. Paper presented at the 75th Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Mauerer, I. (2016, April). Modeling Heterogeneity in Issue Voting: A Mixed Logit for Spatial Issue Voting Models. Paper presented at the University of Málaga (UMA), Department of Economics, Spain.
  • Mauerer, I. (2015, June). Heterogeneity in Issue Voting: Applying the Mixed Logit to the Spatial Issue Voting Model. Paper presented at the 5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association (EPSA), Chair of the Panel ”Issue Voting”, Vienna, Austria.
  • Mauerer, I. (2015, April). Heterogeneity in Spatial Models of Issue Voting. Paper presented at the 73rd Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Mauerer, I. (2014, July). A Cross-National Study of Issue Voting. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Department of Statistics (LMU), Holzhausen.
  • Mauerer, I., Pößnecker, W., Thurner, P. W., & Tutz, G. (2014, June). Modeling Electoral Choices in Multiparty Systems with High-Dimensional Data: A Regularized Selection of Parameters Using the Lasso Approach. Paper presented at the 4th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association (EPSA), Edinburgh, Scotland.
  • Mauerer, I., Pößnecker, W., Thurner, P. W., & Tutz, G. (2014, April). Modeling Electoral Choices in Multiparty Systems with High-Dimensional Data: A Regularized Selection of Parameters Using the Lasso Approach. Paper presented at the 72nd Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Mauerer, I. (2013, June). The Conditionality of Issue Voting in a Comparative Perspective. Paper presented at the 3rd Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association (EPSA), Barcelona, Spain.
  • Mauerer, I. (2013, April). The Conditionality of Issue Voting in a Comparative Perspective. Paper presented at the 71st Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Mauerer, I., Thurner, P. W., & Prokopf, S. (2013, April). Issue Distances, Alienation, and Indifference in a Simultaneous Model of Party Choice and Abstention: An Application to German Elections 1987-2009. Roundtable at the 71st Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Mauerer, I., Thurner, P. W., & Prokopf, S. (2013, March). Alienation and Indifference in a Multiparty System with Coalition Governments and Ticket Splitting. Paper presented at the 41st ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, University of Mainz.
  • Mauerer, I. (2012, July). Issue-Voting bei Deutschen Bundestagswahlen. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Department of Statistics (LMU), Herrsching.